国連科学委員会(UNSCEAR)福島原発事故の放射線影響評価に関する2016年白書と福島の甲状腺がんに関して2016年11月23日 10:01

60.国連科学委員会(UNSCEAR)福島原発事故の放射線影響評価に関する2016年白書と福島の甲状腺がんに関して

 

このブログでは、福島原発事故の放射線影響に関するUNSCEARの報告書について、報告書が出された2013年に、放射線の知識第34回(2013年6月5日)で紹介した。

UNSCEARでは、その後の調査や研究の結果得られた知見をレビュー評価し、2013年報告書の内容に修正を及ぼすべきかどうか評価するプロジェクトを継続しており、昨年の第1回に続いて、本年の評価を白書として11月15日に日本政府に提出している(白書の内容は日本国民向けということで、日本語でも報告されている

http://www.unscear.org/docs/publications/2016/UNSCEAR_WP_2016_JAPANESE.pdf)。

 

この白書内容については、地元の福島以外ではマスメディアがあまり報道していないようであるが、UNSCEARの報告内容というのは、このブログで指摘してきたように、ICRPと並んで現時点での国際的な科学者、技術者の放射線影響に関する客観的な科学技術評価をまとめたものと考えてよいものである。

 

今回の白書では、2013年報告書で示された内容(例えば放射線被ばくによる癌発症の影響については、「放射線被ばくに関連する白血病または乳がん(最も放射線に誘発されやすい2種のがん)や他のタイプの固形がん(おそらくは甲状腺がん以外)の発生率が、識別可能なレベルで放射線に関連して上昇することはないと予測」)を修正する必要はないとしている。そして、甲状腺がんについては、2013年報告書では、「小児の間で甲状腺がんリスクが増加し得る可能性を認識しているが、福島原発事故後の甲状腺への吸収線量がかなり低かったため、福島県においては、チェルノブイリ事故後のような多数の放射線誘発甲状腺がん発生の可能性を考慮しなくともよい」とも指摘していた。

 

このブログでは、福島の子供の甲状腺がん問題に関するテレビ朝日の報道ステーション報道に対して、今年3月の第58回記事で抗議したが、その中で紹介した岡山大の津田氏達の論文に関して、今回のUNSCEAR白書では、私の見解と同様に、偏った見解として科学的に評価できないものとしていることが注目される。

 

そこで、今回はこのUNSCEARの2016年白書内容から、津田氏達の論文評価内容部分を示すので、こうした似非専門家の見解が、国際的、客観的にはどう見られているかに関して理解を深めていただきたい。

 

<正しい知識のために>

 

(UNSCEARの2016年白書から)

 

1編の論文(津田氏達のEpidemiology 27(3): 316-322 (2016)の論文およびその後に発表された批判への回答 )は、甲状腺がんの発生率が放射線によって上昇したことを証明できると主張している。著者らは福島県で50 倍(95%信頼区間:25倍~90倍)の過剰を報告している。しかし、調査の計画と方法は、この解釈を正当化するにはあまりにも偏りが生じやすいものであった。津田氏達は、観察された甲状腺がん発見率に対する、甲状腺の高感度超音波検診の影響を十分には考慮に入れていない。彼らの結論は、FHMS(福島県の県民健康調査)の集団検診を受けた人の甲状腺がん発見率と、小児の甲状腺検診結果がほとんど含まれていない日本の他の地域での発見率との比較に基づいていた。小児期に検診を受けた他の集団、特に被ばくしていない3県で超音波検診を受けた小児についての調査、および日本の若年層における他の検診調査では、放射線被ばくのない甲状腺がんのベースライン発見率がFHMSの発見率と同程度であることが判明している。同様に、韓国で広範な検診を行ったところ、甲状腺がん発見率の明らかに大幅な上昇を経験した。また、検診で検出されたがんの一部は、放射線被ばくの前から存在していた可能性がある。

Wakeford氏達は( Epidemiology 27(3): e20-21(2016))、FHMSが調査した小児の甲状腺がん有病率について、事故に起因する被ばくが比較的低い地域、中程度の地域、および高い地域(津田氏達の定義によるもの)にそれぞれ居住していた小児の有病率を比較することで、津田氏達の論文のデータを分析している。Wakeford氏達 による分析では、線量反応関係の傾向は何ら認められなかった。

実際、被ばくが最も高い地域と最も低い地域における甲状腺がん有病率の比はわずか1.08(95%信頼区間:0.60~1.96)であった。このほかにも、津田氏達と小児の放射線誘発甲状腺がんに関するデータの本質的な部分には、以下のような不一致が見られる。

 

(a)津田氏達の論文は、放射線被ばく後、1年~2年以内に過剰発生があったと報告しているが、チェルノブイリ原発事故後調査および甲状腺への線量がよりかった調査において、年~4 年以内での過剰発生られていない。

(b)FHMSにおける甲状腺がんはすべて、放射線被ばく歳~18歳年齢層発生しているが、調査では甲状腺がんの誘発小児早期歳未満)にばくした年齢層発生している。

(c)測定れた甲状腺線量は、報告された高有病率整合するにはすぎる

 

このような弱点不一致があるため、本委員会は、津田氏達による調査2013年報告書知見重大異議であるとはみなしていない。

上記の記載に示されているように、津田氏達の論文は統計的な意味を持たず、私が3月に指摘したように、「学術論文として投稿発表する」に値しないタメにする論説以外の何ものでもないのである。

UNSCEARは、「調査の計画と方法は、この解釈を正当化するにはあまりにも偏りが生じやすいものであった」、「2013年報告書の知見に対する重大な異議であるとはみなしていない」と穏やかに述べるのだが、本音は、こんな科学に基づかない論文は読んで反論する価値すらないと言っていることを、我々はよく認識しなければならないのである。

 




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